The NFL season is upon us, I’ve just finished my second fantasy draft within the last week and am looking forward to the Bears v Packers coming up on Thursday Night Football to kick things off.
I normally don’t publish my futures bets as I don’t place any hard earned cash on them. This year I’m going to though and this is what I’m going with (by the way, I separate any futures betting from my normal betting account & 2 units per futures bet is a reasonable amount):
These are some of the key factors in what I look at.
SOS = Strength of schedule 0.500 is average, a value less than that is an easier schedule, higher is harder.
Pythagorean Wins = Pythagorean wins is an estimation of where a team’s win total “should” be based only on their points for and against.
Wins Needed: A look at what that team needs to do at least to prove my bet incorrect.
LA Rams Over 10.5 $2.10 Bet365
- SOS: 0.473
- 2018 Pythag Wins: 11.5
- 2018 Wins: 13
Six Hardest Games to go Under 11 wins:
- Away v Panthers Week 1
- Away v Seahawks Week 5
- Away v Falcons Week 7
- Away v Steelers Week 10
- Home v Ravens Week 12
- Away v Cowboys Week 15
Baltimore Ravens Over 8.5 $1.95 Bet365
- SOS: 0.496
- 2018 Pythag Wins: 11.5
- 2018 Wins: 10
Eight Hardest Games to go Under 9 wins:
- Away v Chiefs Week 3
- Away v Steelers Week 5
- Away v Seahawks Week 7
- Home v Patriots Week 9
- Away v Rams Week 12
- Away v Bills Week 14
- Away v Browns Week 16
- Home v Steelers Week 17
New York Jets Under 6.5 $2.65 Bet365
- SOS: 0.473
- 2018 Pythag Wins: 5
- 2018 Wins: 4
Seven Easiest Games to get to 7 wins:
- Home v Bills Week 1
- Away v Dolphins Week 9
- Home v Giants Week 10
- Away v Redskins Week 11
- Home v Raiders Week 12
- Away v Bengals Week 13
- Home v Dolphins Week 14
Oakland Raiders Under 5.5 $2.30 Bet365
- SOS: 0.539
- 2018 Pythag Wins: 3
- 2018 Wins: 4
Six Easiest Games to get to 6 wins:
- Home v Broncos Week 1
- Home v Lions Week 9
- Home v Bengals Week 11
- Away v Jets Week 12
- Home v Titans Week 14
- Home v Jaguars Week 15
Arizona Cardinals Under 5.5 $1.71 Bet365
- SOS: 0.508
- 2018 Pythag Wins: 2
- 2018 Wins: 3
Six Easiest Games to get to 6 wins:
- Home v Lions Week 1
- Home v Panthers Week 3
- Away v Bengals Week 5
- Away v Giants Week 7
- Home v 49ers Week 9
- Away v 49ers Week 11
Can’t wait for football, are the Rams due for a slump after three seasons of improvement?
Same here! I think they will drop off a little bit while still being the best team in the NFC