The NFL season is upon us, I’ve just finished my second fantasy draft within the last week and am looking forward to the Bears v Packers coming up on Thursday Night Football to kick things off.

I normally don’t publish my futures bets as I don’t place any hard earned cash on them.  This year I’m going to though and this is what I’m going with (by the way, I separate any futures betting from my normal betting account & 2 units per futures bet is a reasonable amount):

These are some of the key factors in what I look at.

SOS = Strength of schedule 0.500 is average, a value less than that is an easier schedule, higher is harder.

Pythagorean Wins = Pythagorean wins is an estimation of where a team’s win total “should” be based only on their points for and against.

Wins Needed: A look at what that team needs to do at least to prove my bet incorrect.

 

LA Rams Over 10.5  $2.10 Bet365

  • SOS: 0.473
  • 2018 Pythag Wins: 11.5
  • 2018 Wins: 13

Six Hardest Games to go Under 11 wins:

  • Away v Panthers Week 1
  • Away v Seahawks Week 5
  • Away v Falcons Week 7
  • Away v Steelers Week 10
  • Home v Ravens Week 12
  • Away v Cowboys Week 15

 

 

Baltimore Ravens Over 8.5  $1.95 Bet365

  • SOS: 0.496
  • 2018 Pythag Wins: 11.5
  • 2018 Wins: 10

Eight Hardest Games to go Under 9 wins:

  • Away v Chiefs Week 3
  • Away v Steelers Week 5
  • Away v Seahawks Week 7
  • Home v Patriots Week 9
  • Away v Rams Week 12
  • Away v Bills Week 14
  • Away v Browns Week 16
  • Home v Steelers Week 17

 

 

New York Jets Under 6.5  $2.65 Bet365

  • SOS: 0.473
  • 2018 Pythag Wins: 5
  • 2018 Wins: 4

Seven Easiest Games to get to 7 wins:

  • Home v Bills Week 1
  • Away v Dolphins Week 9
  • Home v Giants Week 10
  • Away v Redskins Week 11
  • Home v Raiders Week 12
  • Away v Bengals Week 13
  • Home v Dolphins Week 14

 

 

Oakland Raiders Under 5.5  $2.30 Bet365

  • SOS: 0.539
  • 2018 Pythag Wins: 3
  • 2018 Wins: 4

Six Easiest Games to get to 6 wins:

  • Home v Broncos Week 1
  • Home v Lions Week 9
  • Home v Bengals Week 11
  • Away v Jets Week 12
  • Home v Titans Week 14
  • Home v Jaguars Week 15

 

 

Arizona Cardinals Under 5.5  $1.71 Bet365

  • SOS: 0.508
  • 2018 Pythag Wins: 2
  • 2018 Wins: 3

Six Easiest Games to get to 6 wins:

  • Home v Lions Week 1
  • Home v Panthers Week 3
  • Away v Bengals Week 5
  • Away v Giants Week 7
  • Home v 49ers Week 9
  • Away v 49ers Week 11