I’m really looking forward to the #NFL season coming up. Hopefully my Steelers can get past the Jags in the Playoffs haha!
I’ve got my two fantasy leagues ready to go with two good sets of Keepers. What I’m really looking forward to though is betting again on the NFL. It was quite an average season in 2017, coming away slightly up (+3.7 units to be exact) but knowing that I made quite a few mistakes along the way.
I have been doing some refining with my system, giving situational games more emphasis. My NFL betting model will be running very similar to what I have done in the NRL in 2018 so hopefully results will be the same! (Over 60% Strikerate, 18% ROI).
Here are my results from last season.
NFL 2017 (Odds with Pinnacle)
WINS: 48
LOSSES: 43
PUSHES: 2
STRIKERATE%: 52.75
ROI%: 4.07
UNITS WON: +3.7
| 25-Dec | IND+13.5 | 0.93 |
| 18-Dec | HOU+10.5 | -1 |
| BUF-4.5 | 1.25 | |
| NYJ+14.5 | 1.05 | |
| 11-Dec | MIN-3 | -1 |
| ARI+1.5 | 1.08 | |
| CHI+6 | 1.02 | |
| NYJ-1.5 | -1 | |
| PHI-2.5 | 1.18 | |
| PIT-5.5 | -1 | |
| 4-Dec | CLE+12.5 | 1.02 |
| KC-3 | -1 | |
| ARI+6.5 | -1 | |
| SEA+6 | 0.99 | |
| 27-Nov | OAK-4 | 1.02 |
| PIT-13.5 | -1 | |
| NO+2 | -1 | |
| 20-Nov | PHI-6.5 | 1 |
| NE-7 | 0.95 | |
| CIN+1.5 | 1.11 | |
| MIN-2.5 | 0.95 | |
| BAL-2.5 | 1.03 | |
| CLE+7 | -1 | |
| CHI+3 | PUSH | |
| 13-Nov | DEN+7 | -1 |
| SF+2.5 | 1.06 | |
| ATL-3.5 | 0.99 | |
| HOU+11.5 | -1 | |
| TB+1 | 1 | |
| CIN+5.5 | 0.93 | |
| CLE+10 | -1 | |
| 7-Nov | GB+2.5 | -1 |
| 6-Nov | CAR+2.5 | 0.95 |
| NYG+4.5 | -1 | |
| CIN+6 | -1 | |
| 30-Oct | CAR+1.5 | 0.95 |
| SEA-6.5 | -1 | |
| ATL-6.5 | -1 | |
| LAC+7.5 | -1 | |
| 27-Oct | BAL-3 | 1 |
| 23-Oct | CIN+5.5 | -1 |
| SF+6 | -1 | |
| LAC+1.5 | 0.93 | |
| ARI+3 | -1 | |
| CLE+5.5 | 0.98 | |
| GB+3.5 | -1 | |
| 16-Oct | ATL-13.5 | -1 |
| CLE+9.5 | -1 | |
| MIN+3 | 0.94 | |
| SF+10.5 | 0.92 | |
| ARI+1.5 | 0.93 | |
| LAC+3.5 | 0.87 | |
| 9-Oct | BAL+3 | 0.93 |
| SEA+1.5 | 0.93 | |
| ARI+6.5 | -1 | |
| LAC+3 | 1.03 | |
| TEN-1.5 | -1 | |
| CAR+2.5 | 0.93 | |
| CLE-1.5 | -1 | |
| 6-Oct | TB+5.5 | 0.89 |
| 2-Oct | MIN-2.5 | -1 |
| CAR+9 | 0.88 | |
| JAX-3.5 | -1 | |
| ARI-6.5 | -1 | |
| TB-2.5 | -1 | |
| DEN-3 | 0.87 | |
| IND+13 | -1 | |
| BAL+3 | -1 | |
| 28-Sep | GB-6.5 | 0.83 |
| 26-Sep | ARI+2.5 | -1 |
| 25-Sep | WAS+3 | 0.91 |
| LAC+3 | -1 | |
| PHI-6 | -1 | |
| MIN+2.5 | 0.95 | |
| IND+1.5 | 0.93 | |
| CHI+7 | 0.98 | |
| BUF+3 | 1.04 | |
| 22-Sep | SF+2.5 | 1.05 |
| 18-Sep | SF+14 | 0.93 |
| DEN+2.5 | 0.95 | |
| NYJ+13.5 | -1 | |
| LAC-3.5 | -1 | |
| NO+6 | -1 | |
| PHI+5.5 | -1 | |
| JAX+1.5 | -1 | |
| IND+7 | 0.88 | |
| 15-Sep | CIN-6.5 | -1 |
| 12-Sep | LAC+3 | PUSH |
| 11-Sep | CHI+6.5 | 0.93 |
| JAX+5.5 | 0.95 | |
| BUF-7.5 | 0.93 | |
| CLE+8.5 | 0.95 | |
| IND+4.5 | -1 |