What a close season in 2018. 1 win separating the Top 8.
And more importantly a winning betting season for me and anyone that followed throughout the whole year. The first two months were absolutely awesome. Then the Origin period hit and I didn’t really make any progress from there but kept the ship on course.
What was surprising is that both betting early in the week compared to on the day of the game didn’t matter that much. If Pinnacle offered odds early in the week I would be taking them. I had a higher strike rate slightly (1.5%) betting earlier in the week. So before lineup adjustments or injuries (that Storm game last round got me though!).
I always make slight adjustments with my numbers throughout the season but the Origin period showed I needed to take those adjustments to another degree to maintain the good results.
Also don’t bet the last round! I knew this coming into it and I still posted, a bit of overconfidence in my system and trusting my numbers too much.
So here are my total results and then I will separate some parts of the season and see how they compare. I will also break down some other areas where I can be successful and maybe run some of those plays going forward in 2019.
Thanks for following and I hope you made some cash either straight tailing my plays or using them to help with your betting. By the way I won’t be betting on the Finals, going to be very hard finding value on Point Spreads this season.
Season Total Early Bet Results (Odds with Bet365)
49-32-2 +12.26 Units 60.5% Strikerate 15.1% ROI
Season Total Gameday Bet Results (Odds with Pinnacle)
51-36-2 +13.32 Units 58.6% Strikerate 15.31% ROI
Season Total Combined Betting Results
100-68-4 +25.58 Units 59.5% Strikerate 15.23% ROI
Early Bets (Origin Period including Round after)
| 3-Jun | SYD+1.5 | 0.9 |
| 8-Jun | CAN ML | -1 |
| GLD+8.5 | 0.9 | |
| 9-Jun | NEW+8 | 0.9 |
| PAR+7.5 | 0.9 | |
| 11-Jun | BUL+6.5 | 0.9 |
| 14-Jun | PAR+10.5 | -1 |
| 15-Jun | NQL+2 | -1 |
| 16-Jun | BUL-2.5 | -1 |
| 17-Jun | NEW+10.5 | -1 |
| 28-Jun | STI-8.5 | -1 |
| 29-Jun | NZW+1.5 | -1 |
| 30-Jun | BUL+4.5 | 0.9 |
| 1-Jul | NQL+9.5 | 0.9 |
| 7-Jul | BUL+6.5 | 0.9 |
| 13-Jul | PEN+1.5 | -1 |
| 14-Jul | BUL+10.5 | -1 |
| NQL+5.5 | -1 | |
| 15-Jul | STI-8 | -1 |
| GLD+8.5 | 0.9 | |
| 20-Jul | CRO-4.5 | -1 |
| 21-Jul | NEW+1.5 | 0.87 |
| WST+9.5 | 0.9 | |
| NQL+4.5 | -1 | |
| 22-Jul | MAN+4.5 | -1 |
11 Wins 14 Losses -4.13 Units
Gameday Bets (Origin Period including Round after)
| 3-Jun | SYD+1.5 | 0.95 |
| 8-Jun | CAN ML | -1 |
| GLD+4 | 0.94 | |
| 9-Jun | PAR+6 | 0.95 |
| NEW+8 | 0.94 | |
| 11-Jun | BUL+8 | 0.9 |
| 14-Jun | PAR+10.5 | -1 |
| 15-Jun | NQL+1.5 | -1 |
| 17-Jun | NEW+10.5 | -1 |
| 28-Jun | STI-8.5 | -1 |
| 29-Jun | NZW-1.5 | -1 |
| 30-Jun | BUL+4.5 | 0.96 |
| 1-Jul | NQL+8.5 | 0.95 |
| 6-Jul | PEN+4.5 | 0.98 |
| 7-Jul | BUL+6.5 | 0.93 |
| 13-Jul | PEN+4.5 | -1 |
| 14-Jul | BUL+10.5 | -1 |
| NQL+4.5 | -1 | |
| MEL-2 | -1 | |
| 15-Jul | STI-8 | -1 |
| 20-Jul | CRO-7.5 | -1 |
| 21-Jul | WST+8.5 | 0.91 |
| NQL+4.5 | -1 | |
| 22-Jul | MAN+6 | -1 |
| NZW+4.5 | -1 |
10 Wins 15 Losses -5.59 Units
ROUND 25
Early Bets & Gameday Bets both 0-4 -4 units.
Basically if I didn’t bet on the Origin period and Round 25, in both Early and Gameday bets. I would have been up 20 units in each over the season and over 60% Strikerate easily.