#NRL #SportsBetting #StateofOrigin
The first Round of Origin affected games kicked in last week and my experiment got off to a good start. 2-1 in both early and gameday bets for nearly +2 units (a nice change to the -2 units I would have been at last season.
Sorry I don’t bet Origin but I do like the Game total Under.
Anyway, a big lineup of six bets this weekend with Origin rules in place.
RULES AS FOLLOWS & WILL CONTINUE UNTIL END OF ORIGIN 3.
Basically I will be generating my numbers with my normal formulas and coming up with a line. If I get an edge in value I would normally take the bet. But not this time! Origin period games screwed me last season (and ones before that, that I have not released publically). So instead of taking that bet, I will go with the opposite team that I would normally bet on.
RESULTS SO FAR (Origin Experiment):
Origin Total Early Bet Results (Odds with Bet365)
2-1 +0.78 Units 66.7% Strikerate 26% ROI
Origin Total Gameday Bet Results (Odds with Pinnacle)
2-1 +1.04 Units 66.7% Strikerate 34.7% ROI
Season Total Combined Betting Results
4-2 +1.82 Units 66.7% Strikerate 30.3% ROI
Week 13 Early Bets (Odds with Bet365) Origin Experiment would normally take the other team’s line
Wests Tigers – Canberra Raiders Raiders to win $1.91
New Zealand Warriors – Melbourne Storm Storm-4 $1.91
Cronulla Sharks – Parramatta Eels Eels+4.5 $1.91
Brisbane Broncos – Gold Coast Titans Broncos-7.5 $1.91
Penrith Panthers – Sydney Roosters Roosters-6.5 $1.91
Canterbury Bulldogs – St. George Illawarra Dragons Dragons-3.5 $1.91