#NRL #SportsBetting #StateofOrigin

The first Round of Origin affected games kicked in last week and my experiment got off to a good start.  2-1 in both early and gameday bets for nearly +2 units (a nice change to the -2 units I would have been at last season.

Sorry I don’t bet Origin but I do like the Game total Under.

Anyway, a big lineup of six bets this weekend with Origin rules in place.


Basically I will be generating my numbers with my normal formulas and coming up with a line.  If I get an edge in value I would normally take the bet.  But not this time!  Origin period games screwed me last season (and ones before that, that I have not released publically).  So instead of taking that bet, I will go with the opposite team that I would normally bet on.


RESULTS SO FAR (Origin Experiment):




Origin Total Early Bet Results (Odds with Bet365)

2-1 +0.78 Units   66.7% Strikerate  26% ROI


Origin Total Gameday Bet Results (Odds with Pinnacle)

2-1 +1.04 Units  66.7% Strikerate  34.7% ROI


Season Total Combined Betting Results

4-2 +1.82 Units   66.7% Strikerate  30.3% ROI




Week 13 Early Bets (Odds with Bet365) Origin Experiment would normally take the other team’s line

Wests Tigers – Canberra Raiders  Raiders to win  $1.91

New Zealand Warriors – Melbourne Storm  Storm-4  $1.91

Cronulla Sharks – Parramatta Eels  Eels+4.5  $1.91

Brisbane Broncos – Gold Coast Titans  Broncos-7.5  $1.91

Penrith Panthers – Sydney Roosters  Roosters-6.5  $1.91

Canterbury Bulldogs – St. George Illawarra Dragons  Dragons-3.5  $1.91