#NRL #Betting
Thanks for following me throughout the NRL season and hopefully you made some coin along the way.
This season wasn’t as successful as 2018 but nonetheless it was still profitable mostly due to changing my approach over the Origin period (and also in the last Round). One of the hardest things with sports betting is finding a gap between teams true values. This was especially hard in the NRL this year. The Storm and Roosters were clearly above the rest while only the Titans really stunk throughout 2019. It was a big scrambled pack of teams between 3rd and 15th whereas last year the talent gap was nicely divided into tiers. The Raiders and the Bunnies made pushes to hang with the Storm and Roosters but never were in that tier, even the Sea Eagles had a chance. It was a real mess after that. Finding edges in the betting market proves to be difficult with the competition panning out like that.
Betting over the Origin period was greatly improved by me going against my own ratings. Each year I had lost over this period of games, not this year! And it worked extremely well.
RESULTS BELOW:
Season Total Combined Betting Results
84-64 -1 +15.47 Units 56.75% Strikerate 10.45% ROI
| EARLY BETS (Bet365) | LSP | |||
| 1.06 | ||||
| WIN | ||||
| 32 | ||||
| LOSS | ||||
| 28 | ||||
| TOTAL | ||||
| 60 | ||||
| % | ||||
| 53.33333 | ||||
| ROI | ||||
| 1.766667 | ||||
| 15-Mar | CRO | -1 | ||
| 17-Mar | PEN-4.5 | -1 | ||
| 18-Mar | CAN+1.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 21-Mar | STI+4 | -1 | ||
| 22-Mar | BRI-4 | 0.91 | ||
| 23-Mar | CRO-7.5 | 0.91 | ||
| PEN+2 | 0.91 | |||
| MAN+8.5 | 0.91 | |||
| 24-Mar | BUL+2.5 | -1 | ||
| 28-Mar | STI+8 | 0.95 | ||
| 29-Mar | CAN-2 | 0.91 | ||
| 30-Mar | MAN+4 | 0.87 | ||
| 4-Apr | SYD-4.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 7-Apr | STI+2 | 0.91 | ||
| 12-Apr | GLD+4 | 0.91 | ||
| NQL+8 | 0.91 | |||
| 13-Apr | SOU-8.5 | -1 | ||
| 20-Apr | STI-6.5 | -1 | ||
| 21-Apr | CAN-3.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 28-Apr | NEW+3.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 2-May | SOU-5.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 3-May | NQL-2 | 0.91 | ||
| 5-May | NZW-4 | -1 | ||
| STI | -1 | |||
| 10-May | MAN+4.5 | -1 | ||
| 11-May | BUL+4 | -1 | ||
| 12-May | NQL+9.5 | -1 | ||
| 17-May | BRI+6.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 18-May | NQL-2.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 19-May | STI-2.5 | -1 | ||
| 23-May | PEN+6.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 25-May | NQL+7.5 | 0.91 | ||
| NZW-1.5 | -1 | |||
| 26-May | BUL+10 | -1 | ||
| 12-Jul | BUL+6.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 14-Jul | WST+2 | -1 | ||
| 18-Jul | BUL+8 | -1 | ||
| 19-Jul | NZW+1.5 | 0.91 | ||
| PEN-3.5 | 0.85 | |||
| 20-Jul | NQL+4 | -1 | ||
| 21-Jul | GLD+8 | -1 | ||
| 27-Jul | GLD+6.5 | -1 | ||
| 28-Jul | BUL+15.5 | 0.91 | ||
| PEN+1.5 | -1 | |||
| 3-Aug | BUL+6.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 4-Aug | STI-1.5 | -1 | ||
| 8-Aug | NQL+1.5 | -1 | ||
| 9-Aug | PEN+4.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 10-Aug | BUL+4.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 11-Aug | SOU+4.5 | -1 | ||
| 15-Aug | GLD+8 | -1 | ||
| 16-Aug | PEN+2.5 | -1 | ||
| 17-Aug | MEL-6.5 | -1 | ||
| 22-Aug | BUL+8 | 0.91 | ||
| 24-Aug | STI+12 | -1 | ||
| 31-Aug | MEL-2 | 0.91 | ||
| 6-Sep | PAR-5.5 | 0.91 | ||
| NQL+13.5 | 0.91 | |||
| 7-Sep | BRI-4 | -1 | ||
| STI-2.5 | 0.91 | |||
| GAMEDAY BETS (Pinnacle) | LSP | |||
| 0.68 | ||||
| WIN | ||||
| 28 | ||||
| LOSS | ||||
| 27 | ||||
| TOTAL | ||||
| 55 | ||||
| % | ||||
| 50.90909 | ||||
| ROI | ||||
| 1.236364 | ||||
| 14-Mar | MEL-2.5 | 0.95 | ||
| 15-Mar | CRO | -1 | ||
| 17-Mar | CAN | 1.04 | ||
| 21-Mar | STI+4 | -1 | ||
| 23-Mar | CRO-8 | 1.01 | ||
| PEN | 1.28 | |||
| 24-Mar | BUL | -1 | ||
| 28-Mar | STI+8.5 | 0.9 | ||
| 29-Mar | CAN-2.5 | 0.94 | ||
| 4-Apr | SYD-4 | 0.99 | ||
| 5-Apr | WAR-2 | 0.99 | ||
| 7-Apr | STI | 1.11 | ||
| 11-Apr | BRI-5.5 | -1 | ||
| 14-Apr | STI-6 | 1.11 | ||
| 21-Apr | CAN-5 | -1 | ||
| 28-Apr | NEW+2 | 0.95 | ||
| 2-May | SOU-6 | 0.94 | ||
| 3-May | NQL-2.5 | 0.84 | ||
| 5-May | NZW-4 | -1 | ||
| STI | -1 | |||
| 10-May | MAN+4 | -1 | ||
| 11-May | BUL+4 | -1 | ||
| 12-May | NQL+8 | -1 | ||
| 17-May | BRI+6.5 | 0.93 | ||
| 18-May | NQL-3 | 1.05 | ||
| 19-May | STI-2.5 | -1 | ||
| 23-May | PEN+6.5 | 0.9 | ||
| 25-May | NQL+6.5 | 0.93 | ||
| NZW-1.5 | -1 | |||
| 26-May | BUL+10 | -1 | ||
| 12-Jul | BUL+6.5 | 0.92 | ||
| 13-Jul | SOU-3 | -1 | ||
| CRO+11.5 | -1 | |||
| 14-Jul | WST | -1 | ||
| 18-Jul | BUL+8 | -1 | ||
| 19-Jul | NZW-1 | PUSH | ||
| 20-Jul | NQL | -1 | ||
| 28-Jul | BUL+14.5 | 1.03 | ||
| PEN | -1 | |||
| 3-Aug | BUL+6.5 | 0.92 | ||
| 4-Aug | STI-1.5 | -1 | ||
| 8-Aug | NQL | -1 | ||
| 9-Aug | PEN+4 | 1.21 | ||
| 10-Aug | BUL+4.5 | 0.93 | ||
| 11-Aug | SOU+6 | -1 | ||
| 15-Aug | WST+10 | -1 | ||
| 15-Aug | GLD+8.5 | -1 | ||
| 17-Aug | MEL-6 | -1 | ||
| 22-Aug | BUL+8 | 0.93 | ||
| 23-Aug | SOU+2 | 0.93 | ||
| 24-Aug | STI+10.5 | -1 | ||
| 31-Aug | MEL-2 | 0.91 | ||
| 6-Sep | PAR-5.5 | 0.99 | ||
| NQL+14 | 0.95 | |||
| 7-Sep | BRI-3.5 | -1 | ||
| STI-5.5 | 1.1 | |||
| ORIGIN EARLY (Bet365) | LSP | |||
| 6.05 | ||||
| WIN | ||||
| 12 | ||||
| LOSS | ||||
| 5 | ||||
| TOTAL | ||||
| 17 | ||||
| % | ||||
| 70.58824 | ||||
| ROI | ||||
| 35.58824 | ||||
| 30-May | MAN-1.5 | -1 | ||
| 31-May | PAR-3.5 | 0.87 | ||
| 1-Jun | CAN-1.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 7-Jun | CAN-1.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 8-Jun | MEL-4 | 0.91 | ||
| PAR+4.5 | -1 | |||
| 9-Jun | BRI-7.5 | -1 | ||
| SYD-6.5 | -1 | |||
| 10-Jun | STI-3.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 14-Jun | NZW-1.5 | 1 | ||
| 15-Jun | PEN+6 | 0.91 | ||
| 16-Jun | MAN-4.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 28-Jun | MEL-1.5 | 1 | ||
| 29-Jun | MAN-4 | 0.85 | ||
| 30-Jun | CRO-8.5 | -1 | ||
| 4-Jul | STI+4.5 | 0.96 | ||
| 5-Jul | SYD-4 | 0.91 | ||
| ORIGIN GAMEDAY (Pinnacle) | LSP | |||
| 7.68 | ||||
| WIN | ||||
| 12 | ||||
| LOSS | ||||
| 4 | ||||
| TOTAL | ||||
| 16 | ||||
| % | ||||
| 75 | ||||
| ROI | ||||
| 48 | ||||
| 30-May | MAN+2 | -1 | ||
| 31-May | PAR-6.5 | 1.05 | ||
| 1-Jun | CAN | 0.99 | ||
| 7-Jun | CAN-1.5 | 1.07 | ||
| 8-Jun | MEL-4 | 0.97 | ||
| PAR+4.5 | -1 | |||
| 9-Jun | BRI-7.5 | -1 | ||
| 10-Jun | STI-3.5 | 1.02 | ||
| 14-Jun | NZW-1.5 | 0.91 | ||
| 15-Jun | PEN+5.5 | 0.85 | ||
| 16-Jun | MAN-4.5 | 0.92 | ||
| 28-Jun | MEL-1.5 | 0.9 | ||
| 29-Jun | MAN-6 | 0.9 | ||
| 30-Jun | CRO-9.5 | -1 | ||
| 4-Jul | STI+6.5 | 1 | ||
| 5-Jul | SYD-4.5 | 1.1 | ||