#NRL #Betting

Thanks for following me throughout the NRL season and hopefully you made some coin along the way.

This season wasn’t as successful as 2018 but nonetheless it was still profitable mostly due to changing my approach over the Origin period (and also in the last Round).  One of the hardest things with sports betting is finding a gap between teams true values.  This was especially hard in the NRL this year.  The Storm and Roosters were clearly above the rest while only the Titans really stunk throughout 2019.  It was a big scrambled pack of teams between 3rd and 15th whereas last year the talent gap was nicely divided into tiers.  The Raiders and the Bunnies made pushes to hang with the Storm and Roosters but never were in that tier, even the Sea Eagles had a chance.  It was a real mess after that.  Finding edges in the betting market proves to be difficult with the competition panning out like that.

 

Betting over the Origin period was greatly improved by me going against my own ratings.  Each year I had lost over this period of games, not this year!  And it worked extremely well.

 

 

RESULTS BELOW:

Season Total Combined Betting Results

84-64 -1  +15.47 Units   56.75% Strikerate  10.45% ROI

 

 

 

 

EARLY BETS (Bet365) LSP
1.06
WIN
32
LOSS
28
TOTAL
60
%
53.33333
ROI
1.766667
15-Mar CRO -1
17-Mar PEN-4.5 -1
18-Mar CAN+1.5 0.91
21-Mar STI+4 -1
22-Mar BRI-4 0.91
23-Mar CRO-7.5 0.91
PEN+2 0.91
MAN+8.5 0.91
24-Mar BUL+2.5 -1
28-Mar STI+8 0.95
29-Mar CAN-2 0.91
30-Mar MAN+4 0.87
4-Apr SYD-4.5 0.91
7-Apr STI+2 0.91
12-Apr GLD+4 0.91
NQL+8 0.91
13-Apr SOU-8.5 -1
20-Apr STI-6.5 -1
21-Apr CAN-3.5 0.91
28-Apr NEW+3.5 0.91
2-May SOU-5.5 0.91
3-May NQL-2 0.91
5-May NZW-4 -1
STI -1
10-May MAN+4.5 -1
11-May BUL+4 -1
12-May NQL+9.5 -1
17-May BRI+6.5 0.91
18-May NQL-2.5 0.91
19-May STI-2.5 -1
23-May PEN+6.5 0.91
25-May NQL+7.5 0.91
NZW-1.5 -1
26-May BUL+10 -1
12-Jul BUL+6.5 0.91
14-Jul WST+2 -1
18-Jul BUL+8 -1
19-Jul NZW+1.5 0.91
PEN-3.5 0.85
20-Jul NQL+4 -1
21-Jul GLD+8 -1
27-Jul GLD+6.5 -1
28-Jul BUL+15.5 0.91
PEN+1.5 -1
3-Aug BUL+6.5 0.91
4-Aug STI-1.5 -1
8-Aug NQL+1.5 -1
9-Aug PEN+4.5 0.91
10-Aug BUL+4.5 0.91
11-Aug SOU+4.5 -1
15-Aug GLD+8 -1
16-Aug PEN+2.5 -1
17-Aug MEL-6.5 -1
22-Aug BUL+8 0.91
24-Aug STI+12 -1
31-Aug MEL-2 0.91
6-Sep PAR-5.5 0.91
NQL+13.5 0.91
7-Sep BRI-4 -1
STI-2.5 0.91

 

GAMEDAY BETS (Pinnacle) LSP
0.68
WIN
28
LOSS
27
TOTAL
55
%
50.90909
ROI
1.236364
14-Mar MEL-2.5 0.95
15-Mar CRO -1
17-Mar CAN 1.04
21-Mar STI+4 -1
23-Mar CRO-8 1.01
PEN 1.28
24-Mar BUL -1
28-Mar STI+8.5 0.9
29-Mar CAN-2.5 0.94
4-Apr SYD-4 0.99
5-Apr WAR-2 0.99
7-Apr STI 1.11
11-Apr BRI-5.5 -1
14-Apr STI-6 1.11
21-Apr CAN-5 -1
28-Apr NEW+2 0.95
2-May SOU-6 0.94
3-May NQL-2.5 0.84
5-May NZW-4 -1
STI -1
10-May MAN+4 -1
11-May BUL+4 -1
12-May NQL+8 -1
17-May BRI+6.5 0.93
18-May NQL-3 1.05
19-May STI-2.5 -1
23-May PEN+6.5 0.9
25-May NQL+6.5 0.93
NZW-1.5 -1
26-May BUL+10 -1
12-Jul BUL+6.5 0.92
13-Jul SOU-3 -1
CRO+11.5 -1
14-Jul WST -1
18-Jul BUL+8 -1
19-Jul NZW-1 PUSH
20-Jul NQL -1
28-Jul BUL+14.5 1.03
PEN -1
3-Aug BUL+6.5 0.92
4-Aug STI-1.5 -1
8-Aug NQL -1
9-Aug PEN+4 1.21
10-Aug BUL+4.5 0.93
11-Aug SOU+6 -1
15-Aug WST+10 -1
15-Aug GLD+8.5 -1
17-Aug MEL-6 -1
22-Aug BUL+8 0.93
23-Aug SOU+2 0.93
24-Aug STI+10.5 -1
31-Aug MEL-2 0.91
6-Sep PAR-5.5 0.99
NQL+14 0.95
7-Sep BRI-3.5 -1
STI-5.5 1.1

 

ORIGIN EARLY (Bet365) LSP
6.05
WIN
12
LOSS
5
TOTAL
17
%
70.58824
ROI
35.58824
30-May MAN-1.5 -1
31-May PAR-3.5 0.87
1-Jun CAN-1.5 0.91
7-Jun CAN-1.5 0.91
8-Jun MEL-4 0.91
PAR+4.5 -1
9-Jun BRI-7.5 -1
SYD-6.5 -1
10-Jun STI-3.5 0.91
14-Jun NZW-1.5 1
15-Jun PEN+6 0.91
16-Jun MAN-4.5 0.91
28-Jun MEL-1.5 1
29-Jun MAN-4 0.85
30-Jun CRO-8.5 -1
4-Jul STI+4.5 0.96
5-Jul SYD-4 0.91

 

ORIGIN GAMEDAY (Pinnacle) LSP
7.68
WIN
12
LOSS
4
TOTAL
16
%
75
ROI
48
30-May MAN+2 -1
31-May PAR-6.5 1.05
1-Jun CAN 0.99
7-Jun CAN-1.5 1.07
8-Jun MEL-4 0.97
PAR+4.5 -1
9-Jun BRI-7.5 -1
10-Jun STI-3.5 1.02
14-Jun NZW-1.5 0.91
15-Jun PEN+5.5 0.85
16-Jun MAN-4.5 0.92
28-Jun MEL-1.5 0.9
29-Jun MAN-6 0.9
30-Jun CRO-9.5 -1
4-Jul STI+6.5 1
5-Jul SYD-4.5 1.1
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